Still basking in the Saints glory of their epic win in Super Bowl XLIV, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the collective ESPN experts who picked sides before the game, and how dumb a lot of them look right about now.
The Sunday Countdown picks were interesting enough: of the four ex-NFLers that had picks, the two that actually won Super Bowls picked the Saints--Mike Ditka and Keyshawn Johmson. The two that didn't--Tom Jackson and Cris Carter--picked the Colts.
Even better, there's a page with the analyst, their pick, and a brief summary why they made their pick. And I'm gonna have some fun with that now.
Tedy Bruschi: Colts, 35-31
No team has beaten the Colts all year.
Um, Tedy? They lost two games. When you say that "no team has beaten the Colts all year", you are implying that the Colts went undefeated. Any Colts fan will tell you that they didn't. The last two games still count; they didn't go 14-0 with two disconnects. I don't care if they "weren't trying to win" those games. What, the other teams weren't trying to lose?
Gregg Easterbrook: Colts, 20-17
I pick 20-17 not because I have any reason to think that score will happen; 20-17 is simply the most common NFL outcome, happened 11 times this season.
You know what else happened 11 times this season, Gregg? Cleveland and Oakland losing games. Dallas, Philadelphia and Green Bay winning games in the regular season. Miles Austin scoring touchdowns. Just because it's the most common number doesn't mean it's the way you should base a pick, Gregg. Way to phone it in. Stevie Wonder has made better Super Bowl picks.
Scott Van Pelt: Saints, 28-24
Not one human thinks this can happen, so I will take the Saints (and I'm not happy about it).
Because you were forced to pick them. Right, Scott? They--or somebody--made you pick the Saints. And now that you're right, will you be collecting the money in that secret bet of yours?
Sal Paolantonio: Colts, 28-17
Indianapolis won't turn it over five times, and Peyton Manning kills the blitz.
This was a good point. The Colts don't turn the ball over much, and typically, Manning destroys blitz-on-man coverage. Except, in the one instance in Super Bowl XLIV that both happened, it cost them the ballgame. Peyton is not (always) Superman.
Len Pasquarelli: Colts, 27-17
Too much Peyton for Payton.
Yeah. That was fantastic analysis, Len.
Matt Mosley: Saints, 28-24
New Orleans had no business beating the Vikings in the NFC title game, and that's why this feels like one of those destiny situations to me. The Colts have the edge at QB, but I think Sean Payton will put together a masterful game plan.
This is the most accurate analysis on the whole thing. The Vikings gave the NFC Championship away with almost a half-dozen turnovers. If not for that, the Saints are sitting at home. But everything else Mosley said came to pass, for the most part. I mean, an onside kick to start the second half? Only on Madden Online does this happen, and that's a less important game than the Super Bowl.
And then, there's Gene Wojciechowski, and his 15-point dissertation on why the Colts are the bestest, greatest team ever, and Peyton Manning rules, and blah-blah-experience...
If 40-year-old Brett Favre threw for 310 yards against the Saints, what sort of numbers will Manning, a former Super Bowl MVP and four-time league MVP, put up with an extra week's worth of preparation?Manning, SB XLIV: 31/45, 333 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. Almost similar numbers to what he threw in Super Bowl XLI. (25/38, 247 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT) So, two weeks' prep yielded about seven more attempts, six more completions, and 86 yards. Not to mention, they lost.
The difference was the Colts had a RB that rushed for over 100 yards then, and in XLIV, they didn't even get to 100 yards as a team. Which dovetails into this point Wojo made:
But that doesn't mean the Colts can't or won't run the ball. They rushed for 101 yards against the Jets in the conference championship (Addai had 80 of the 101).
101 yards? Dominic Rhodes ran for 113 yards on his own against the Bears the last time the Colts were in the Super Bowl. Add to this the fact that the worst-rated rushing team has never won the Super Bowl, and the Colts were #32 in a 32-team league. Against the 21st-ranked Saints run defense, they got a pithy 99 yards. And Wojo's bragging about a 101-yard day against the #8 rushing defense in the NFL? Way to forget that the Colts won the AFC Championship Game because the Jets insisted on sending six and seven people on a blitz, leaving Dallas Clark and Austin Collie wide open in the slots on spotty man coverage.
The Colts can stick it to all the people who thought they shouldn't have sat their starters against the Jets in Week 16.
Yeah, they sure stuck it to all those people, Wojo. In all fairness, though, those last two games had nothing to do with this one. The Colts went up against an equally well-prepared team, and got beat. There's no shame in the way they lost this game, except that they were too methodical. Sean Payton took gamble after gamble, and the gambles paid off when it counted.
But the assorted media's campaign to Anoint Peyton Manning as The Greatest Quarterback to Have Ever Lived was puffery fail.
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