The NFL's Conference Championships are taking place today, and I am going to make my picks of the participants for Super Bowl XLIV in two weeks.
AFC Championship Game
Sunday, 3:00 EST, Indianapolis, IN (CBS)
N.Y. Jets v. Indianapolis Colts
MY PICK: Indianapolis.
WHY: Despite the fact that I have picked against the Jets in every playoff game, I'm picking against them again this game for a couple of reasons:
- The Baltimore Effect. The Colts just beat the Ravens last week, and now they will face a similar defensive strategy, albeit with a better cornerback than they faced last week. Not to mention that, before they quit on the game back in Week 16, the Colts had the lead over this same Jets club. Also, the Jets, much like Baltimore last season, are playing a third playoff game on the road with a rookie QB. Yes, the Jets have better receivers than the Ravens. But I don't see them making that much more a difference against that cover zone.
- The Colts Have Been There Before. Peyton Manning and most of that Colts roster have been to the AFC Championship Game, both at home and on the road. The Jets, to my knowledge, have only a handful of players that have gotten even that far--by my count, only three (Sheppard, Woody, and T. Jones) have ever been to the Super Bowl.
I just don't see the Jets pulling this one off...but then, I never envisioned they would get even this far into the playoffs, Cincinnati and San Diego.
NFC Championship Game
Sunday, 6:40pm EST, New Orleans, LA (Fox)
Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints
MY PICK: New Orleans.
WHY: First and foremost, by birth, I am a Louisianan. So I'm biased by blood. Then again, I'd probably be biased by the same if Houston ever got in.
Second, because I'm biased, I want to see the Saints get to the Super Bowl. Nothing against Brett Favre, but it would just be cool for New Orleans (as it would have been in 2006) to get to the Super Bowl, after years and years of failure, years of losing, and most of all, years of Katrina aftermath.
Third, they have Teh Superdome. Yes, I'm aware of Brett Favre winning his only Super Bowl in that same place--I saw it, it was the first Super Bowl telecast by the Fox Network--and I'm aware of Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian, Jared Allen, Sidney Rice, the banged up Saints secondary, and a questionable Jeremy Shockey. But let me ask you...if the Saints have a five-point lead with under two minutes to go, do you trust Brett Favre in that large dome with all those Saints partisans at full throat? You trusted him at home in sub-zero conditions in Green Bay in January 2008, and look what happened...
I'm going with the Dome, the City of New Orleans and Orleans Parish, the State of Louisiana, and the Lower Mississippi Valley. And then Darren Sharper to intercept the inevitable pick to clinch it.
So there you have it: Colts v. Saints in Miami Gardens, Florida for Super Bowl XLIV.
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